With the Indianapolis Colts full 2024 schedule now out, NFL experts have made their record predictions for them for the upcoming season. In short, these records range from being a fringe playoff team and all the way down to just six wins.
Like every team, the Colts have their question marks. The secondary remains the biggest question mark, while Anthony Richardson is still a relatively inexperienced quarterback after missing most of his rookie season.
However, with that said, you can also see a path to a successful season for the Colts as well. Compared to their counterparts, they have a manageable schedule. Year 2 under in a new offense is often a jumping-off point for teams, while around Richardson is a very good offensive line, along with Jonathan Taylor, Adonai Mitchell, and Michaell Pittman. On defense, the Colts should have one of the more disruptive fronts in football.
Ultimately, potential doesn’t mean much without execution, and we won’t be able to see that aspect of all this for a few months yet. So, in the meantime, here is how several NFL experts have the season unfolding for the Colts.
Indianapolis Colts head coach Shane Steichen watches the action on the field Sunday, Dec. 10, 2023, during a game against the Cincinnati Bengals at Paycor Stadium in Cincinnati.
Record prediction: 8-9
Verderame notes a difficult stretch of the schedule during the middle portion of the season. The good news is that the games against Buffalo and Detroit will be at home, but the Buffalo game comes after a two-game road trip against Houston and Chicago.
What Verderame had to say: “The Colts have a chance to compete for the AFC South or win a wild-card spot. That said, having to contend with the AFC East and NFC North divisions will make things problematic. For Indianapolis, the key could be handling a tough home slate including dates with Buffalo, Miami, Detroit and Chicago.”
Record prediction: 7.9 wins
NFL.com analytics expert Cynthia Frelund ran 150,000 simulations for all 272 regular season games, which yielded the projected win totals. In this scenario, 7.9 wins was not enough to make the playoffs in the AFC.
What Frelund had to say: “The return of Anthony Richardson, along with some great new pieces (AD Mitchell, Laiatu Latu), creates a ton of upside for this young team. The Colts’ hardest four-game stretch comes in the middle of the season (Dolphins, at Texans, at Vikings, Bills), with a trip to the Jets and a home game against the Lions immediately following. That’s a lot of different playing styles they’ll need to adjust to over a six-week period. The good news: My models have Indy favored in each of its final four games of the campaign (at Broncos, Titans, at Giants, Jaguars).”
Record prediction: 9-8
Just like last season, the Colts find themselves in a similar spot in these projections with a 9-8 record, fighting to make the playoffs.
What Moton had to say: The Colts need Latu to play up to Balldard’s expectations, because they must tie up loose ends on defense to make a push for a playoff spot. Indianapolis will once again straddle the playoff cutoff line in a conference of heavyweights.”
Record prediction: 9-8
The importance of continuity for the Colts is mentioned by Arthur. This offseason, the Colt’s only significant additions made in free agency were Joe Flacco and Raekwon Davis; otherwise, the $200 million in contracts GM Chris Ballard handed out went to re-signing or extending his own players.
What Ben Arthur had to say: “The Colts aren’t respected nationally entering 2024, as they have just one primetime game (Week 11, Sunday Night Football at the Jets). But a healthy Anthony Richardson paired with star running back Jonathan Taylor, who has played just two regular-season snaps with last year’s No. 4 pick, could be lethal under second-year coach Shane Steichen. The franchise has stressed continuity this offseason too, re-signing and extending most of its core. Having a tame final stretch of the season on paper (Patriots, Broncos, Titans, Giants and Jaguars) could reap huge rewards for Indianapolis in playoff jostling.”
Record prediction: 6-11
Dakota Randall broke the NFL schedule and his predictions into segments. He has the Colts starting the season 2-2, but finishing 6-11. The Colts do have a difficult stretch during the middle of the season, but their schedule ends favorably for them, which could allow them to get on a late-season run.
Record prediction: 10-7
Boyd notes the secondary being a big unknown for this Colts’ team. Despite it being one of the bigger perceived needs that the Colts had entering the draft, they didn’t select a cornerback until Round 5. They are banking on the development of their young players and the return of Dallis Flowers to be the catalyst for improved play.
What Boyd had to say: “It would be easy to look at the Colts’ 9-8 record last year and boost it by a few more wins this year, assuming Richardson stays healthy. But it’s not just about him. It’s about the team, and, more specifically, the defensive secondary that could hold it back from truly taking off.”
Indianapolis Colts defensive end Kwity Paye (51) yells after recovering a second quarter fumble on a strip by teammate defensive tackle Taven Bryan (96) on Sunday, Sept. 24, 2023, at M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore.
Record prediction: 9-8
Ultimately, Anthony Richardson’s play will dictate the Colts’ ceiling this season, but after his rookie season was cut short due to injury, there are still unknowns, which I’m going to guess is why so many of these predictions have the Colts as a .500 team or worse.
What Mosher had to say: “The Colts have many possible outcomes this year, depending on Richardson’s health and development. However, their roster should be good enough to keep them competitive in the AFC South.”
Record prediction: 11-6
In case you missed it, I made my own record prediction for the Colts and appear much more bullish on this team than the others mentioned in this article. In short, the recipe for a successful season is there, and on paper anyway, the Colts have one of the easier strengths of schedule in the NFL.
